Modeling evacuation and land-use planning for volcanic emergencies

Volcanic crises can continue for years or even decades and have global socioeconomic implications that are not yet well understood. Dr. Susanna Jenkins decided to focus her research on this largely unappreciated risk. In addition to scientifi c information, Dr. Jenkins emphasizes the importance of physical, socioeconomic and political factors for timely and effective risk-reduction decisions, such as evacuation. Using an inclusive Bayesian* approach, she aims to integrate infl uential factors such as human behavior and vulnerability into a robust decision-support framework that is capable of assessing the risk for populations exposed to volcanic hazards and quantifying the consequences of potential risk-reduction decisions. The framework could have wider applications and become a valuable tool for supporting evacuation protocols and reducing risk to natural hazards.